Retirement Monte Carlo
Will a portfolio outlast the plan? Instead of assuming a flat average return, it resamples real market history — S&P 500, 10-year Treasuries, and CPI inflation together, 1928–2025 — across thousands of simulated lifetimes, and reports the probability the money lasts in today's dollars.
- Full lifecycle — saving years and retirement years on one age-based timeline, with pensions, Social Security, fees, and taxes on withdrawals
- Real strategies — fixed-real spending or Guyton-Klinger guardrails; a fixed stock/bond mix or a glide path
- Find your levers — sensitivity sweeps, a two-parameter success heatmap, and a tornado chart ranking which assumption matters most
- Sequence-of-returns risk — how much of the failure risk is the order of returns, and when you're past the danger zone
- Shareable & private — scenarios encode into a link; private mode hides every dollar figure for screen sharing
Pokémon Damage Calculator
K Calc — a competitive Pokémon doubles toolsuite built for the Champions format. Paste a Showdown team, pick the opponent's six, and get every offensive and defensive matchup at once, recalculated live as the battle state changes.
- Every matchup, not one — full offense and defense grids across ±6 stat stages, plus speed tiers and lead-pair scoring from Smogon usage data
- Battle tracker — stat stages, weather, screens, Helping Hand, and KOs update every tab in real time
- Team builder — slot-by-slot editor that exports a Showdown paste or loads straight into the calculator
- Extra tools — OHKO thresholds, base-stat comparison, a movepool/ability finder, and match history with export
Voter Demographic Predictor
Answer eleven demographic questions and see how a model fitted on survey microdata would have guessed your presidential vote — in 2008, 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2024, all at once. The point isn't the guess, it's the line across five cycles: the specification never changes, so when your prediction moves between years, that's the electorate moving and not the method.
- Realignment, about you specifically — a white voter with a postgraduate degree is a different political animal in 2024 than in 2008, and the five-cycle line shows it
- The chart is the arithmetic — each answer's effect is a bar in log-odds against that cycle's average voter, and the bars sum exactly to the distance between that voter and you
- Every number is on the page — a coefficients table for all eleven features across sixteen years, plus a methodology page whose figures are read from the model files so they can't drift out of date
- Real data, stated limits — logistic regressions over 127,578 CES respondents, with party ID deliberately excluded so the demographics aren't buried, and known survey problems flagged next to the questions they affect
- Shareable — a profile encodes into a readable link, and preset examples are picked for actually moving across cycles rather than for being vivid